Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup? Our Power Ranking of All 48 Teams
June 10, 2026
The World Cup is here, and the key question is pretty simple: who’s going to win the whole thing? If you’ve been asking yourself the same question — or something like “Who’s going to finish third in Group F?” because you’re a real one — then look no further, because our epic ranking of all 48 teams in this year’s tournament has all the answers you need. (And if you’re looking to pair your newfound country fandom with a corresponding meal in the neighborhood, we have that covered, too.)
S Tier: Potential Winners
Our top tier comprises teams who have a realistic chance of winning the whole thing (and will probably be met with awkward questions on their return home if they don’t at least reach the semi-finals or final). There are precisely five teams in this tier, and our ranking in order of the likelihood of taking the whole thing home is below.
1. France
France’s midfield and defense are world class, but their surfeit of attacking talent borders on the absurd. As well as global superstar Kylian Mbappé, they can call on the current holder of the Balon d’Or (Ousmane Démbélé), the second top scorer in Italy this season (Marcus Thuram), the most cultured left foot in Germany (Michael Olise), the man who has almost single-handedly revived Manchester City (Rayan Cherki), and the brightest stars in PSG’s firmament of young talent (Warren Zaïre-Emery, Désiré Doué.) And that’s without Liverpool striker Hugo Ekitike, whose Achilles injury means that sadly, he won’t play this time around. I mean, come on.
2. Spain
Spain is really the only nation whose talent pool can rival that of their European neighbors. In the transcendent Lamine Yamal, they have perhaps the most spectacular young talent in world football today, although his recent hamstring injury looks like a warning against overworking a player who, for all his precocious abilities, has only just turned 18. Yamal will be joined by several of his fellow Barcelona tyros: Pedri, Pau Cubarsí and Gavi. And in Rodri, they have a man who was the world’s best all-around midfielder before the injury problems that have plagued him for the last couple of years. If he can regain his old form…well, you never know.
3. Argentina
The defending champions aren’t quite the force they were four years ago, largely because their talisman Lionel Messi is four years older. At 38, he can still score goals for fun in MLS, but the World Cup is not MLS. Of course, Argentina are by no means a one-man team, and young(ish) talents like Julián Alvarez, who has come into his own at Atlético Madrid, will be eager to prove they can step up onto soccer’s biggest stage. It feels like 2026 might be a tournament too late for Messi and a tournament too early for the younger generation — but people said that last time, too.
4. Germany
Former England striker Gary Lineker’s endlessly quoted observation — “Football is a simple game… 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win” — is a soccer cliché for a reason. The Germans do always win. Well, OK, not always, but often enough that you can never really write them off. They’ve endured two uncharacteristically fallow World Cups, and while they perhaps lack a bona fide star, there’s more than enough talent in their squad to suggest that this won’t be a third.
5. Brazil
Also in the “you can never really write them off” category: Brazil. The days when Brazil ran rings around bewildered European defenders are long gone, as . the vast majority of this year’s squad either do or have played in Europe, and so too is the certainty that if nothing else, the tournament’s best player would be wearing a yellow shirt. But even if there’s no Pelé or Zico or Ronaldo to wow crowds with otherworldly skill, Brazil is still spoiled for players who can change a match with a moment of magic. In the knockout stages, where margins are finer than fine, sometimes that’s enough.
A Tier: Dark Horses
While the Tier A teams fancy themselves as rightful winners, they won’t necessarily be the ones hoisting the trophy on July 19. If there’s going to be a team to come out of relative left field and steal away with the prize, we reckon it’ll be one of these in Tier B. No one necessarily expects one of these countries to win it all, but one of them emerging victorious wouldn’t send shockwaves throughout the world of soccer.
6. Belgium
Although Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku are back for one last tilt at the prize, Belgium’s “golden generation” era appears to be over. And hear us out, that might just be the best thing that’s ever happened to the Red Devils. Free from the expectations and the pressure that come with an unprecedented and unexpected surfeit of talent, perhaps Belgium can just play football — which they do very well. Their best XI contains a pleasant balance of experience and youthful exuberance, with a midfield anchored by the perpetually underrated Youri Tielemans and a forward line featuring the resurgent Jérémy Doku.
7. England
Could this be England’s year? Considering the stacked roster, yes, it could. But a lack of talent has rarely been England’s problem. Instead, it’s been finding a way to turn a mixture of individuals into a coherent team. The reasons have changed from tournament to tournament — club rivalries, tactical conundrums, ill-timed fits of indiscipline — but ever since 1966, England have always found ways to underperform on this stage. This time around, the question appears to be whether Thomas Tuchel can both trust and accommodate Jude Bellingham, a player who feels like he should be the first name on the team sheet, but doesn’t always sit comfortably within the strictures of a team. Tuchel’s commitment to picking the best combination, rather than the best players, has been laudable. But will he be able to stick to his principles when the spotlights start shining on him?
8. The Netherlands
The Netherlands’ progress looked a lot more straightforward before Group F rivals Sweden’s rejuvenation under Graham Potter, a man who looks like he enjoys Scandinavia a lot more than his native England. The loss of up-and-coming playmaker Xavi Simons, who blew out his ACL recently, is a real shame — but while there’s perhaps no one to rival the talent of the Dutch superstars of yesteryear in this year’s squad, there’s still more than enough here to win Group F and progress deep into the knockout rounds.
9. Portugal
There’s nothing Cristiano Ronaldo would love more than to stand alone on the podium, holding the World Cup aloft and siuuuu-ing in the light of an endless sea of flash bulbs. But even the football world’s biggest personality can’t completely bend reality to his will, as he’s 41 now, and no longer the de facto Portugal team leader. With that said, would you bet against a fairytale ending for a man who has engineered more dramatic last-minute denouements than anyone on Earth?
10. Senegal
Are they the best team in Africa? Well, it depends on who you ask — at the time of writing, at least, Senegal had been stripped of their Africa Cup of Nations title after the fiasco that ensued in that competition’s final. But the fact remains that on the pitch, at least, Senegal beat all comers at AFCON, and that for our money, they’re the team from beyond the traditional twin soccer strongholds of Europe and South America best equipped to make waves at this tournament.
B Tier: Hope Springs Eternal
We’re pretty confident in saying that none of the teams in this tier are going to win the World Cup, but they should at the very least have a decent chance of reaching the knockout stage. And once they’re there… well, who knows?
11. Norway
It’s hard to rule out a team that can field both a 6’5” goal-thrashing destruct-o-bot and a cerebral midfield schemer with the talent to supply him all day long. Is having both Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard in their squad enough for Norway to trouble the later knockout stages? Perhaps — although it’s notable that the two best players in this squad who aren’t Haaland or Ødegaard (Alexander Sørloth and Jørgen Strang Larsen) happen to play the former’s position. The defense looks less convincing, but if it can hold up, Norway might prove an awkward proposition.
12. Mexico
The key question: how big of an advantage will playing at home provide Mexico? On a metaphorical pound-for-pound basis, the squad available to outgoing coach Javier Aguirre isn’t quite in the same league as the other teams in this tier. But they’re no mugs, either, and playing in front of home crowds who would love nothing more than to see their heroes make a deep run into this tournament… that has to count for something.
13. Morocco
As of the time of writing, Morocco are the champions of Africa. Whether or not they retain that title in the long term, they were excellent at AFCON, they’re currently eighth in FIFA’s world rankings. Plus, let’s not forget that they made the World Cup semi-finals four years ago. Achraf Hakimi might well be the world’s best full-back, Ayyoub Bouaddi is a hugely exciting young talent, and Brahim Díaz can do everything — except take a convincing Panenka.
14. Ghana
Of all the teams in this tier, Ghana have arguably the most firepower going forward, and in a knockout competition, that can make all the difference. One moment of inspiration from Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo, Iñaki Williams or Jordan Ayew could be enough to turn a game in the Black Stars’ favor. The open question is how changing managers so close to the competition will affect them. Will replacing Otto Addo with veteran coach Carlos Queiroz fix their defensive issues? If so, they could go far. If not, they could go home early.
15. Bosnia-Herzegovina
You might think that the team who booked their ticket by recording a famous and largely unexpected upset victory over the once-mighty Italy would fall very much into the “Happy to Be Here” category. But the thing is, Bosnia-Herzegovina looked good against the Italians, and they’ve landed in Group B, where they should fear no one. Ending up second in that group would put them on a collision course with France or Germany, but winning it would put them in the bottom of the draw, which looks a lot more open. This team might just be this year’s surprise packet.
16. Colombia
Luis Díaz has been reborn at Bayern Munich this season, and it’s unclear why his absence from Anfield hasn’t been cited more often as one of the reasons behind Liverpool’s starting decline this season. He’s definitely the star man in this Colombian team, although James Rodríguez — the man behind one of the all-time great World Cup goals, lest we forget — tends to save his best for the national team.
17. Egypt
By contrast, Díaz’s former strike partner Mo Salah has endured a largely awful season at Liverpool, but if there’s anything that could motivate one last glorious fit of rage against the dying of the light, it’s surely the chance of dragging his country to World Cup glory. Salah’s brilliance is a cut above any of his teammates, and it means that Egypt largely stand or fall on his form.
18. Uruguay
Casual fans might not know of Uruguay’s proud history in this competition. They’re two-time winners, having lifted the trophy in 1930 and 1950. They haven’t added to that tally since, but they always prove hard to beat (by fair means or foul). Their best player, Fede Valverde, was recently hospitalized for a head injury, but assuming he’s fit by game time, they should be a shoo-in to finish second and emerge from their group with a minimum of fuss.
19. Sweden
Not so long ago, Sweden looked to be in danger of missing this tournament entirely. To do so would have been a huge case of underperformance, because Sweden is a nation with both a perfectly good squad and a proud World Cup pedigree. However, the arrival of former Brighton, Chelsea and West Ham manager Graham Potter — a man who has a long history with Sweden — shored things up, and while they needed to rely on the European qualification playoffs to ensure they’d be here this time around, things look to be heading in the right direction as the tournament draws near.
20. USA
USA! USA! USA! Home advantage means that the USMNT should expect to emerge from their group, at the very least. That said,, neither Türkiye nor Paraguay are pushovers, and Australia always relish being underdogs. If the USA finishes second, they’ll be scheduled to play the second-placed team from Group G, which will most likely be one of two teams: Egypt or Iran. Should be interesting.
21. Côte d’Ivoire
Les Elephants will be eager to make up for a relatively disappointing showing at AFCON, where . they arrived as defending champions but were defenestrated in the quarter-finals by Mohamed Salah and Egypt. While there’s no one in the current generation to rival past greats the Touré brothers or Chelsea legend Didier Drogba, Côte d’Ivoire have a solid squad and will be a team that no one will relish playing.
22. Croatia
Of all the stars who’ll light up this tournament one last time, Luka Modrić is the one who seems best able to defy aging. At 40, Modrić remains a key player for AC Milan, the club he joined after 12 silverware-laden seasons at Real Madrid. The fact that Madrid were sad to see him go speaks volumes for his enduring influence. A decade ago, he won the Golden Ball for the best player at the 2018 World Cup, in which Croatia made the final. It’s hard to see him wielding that sort of influence again, but if he does…
23. Japan
Without injured stars Kaoru Mitoma — a man with a contender for the silkiest first touch in world football — and Takumi Minamino, Japan’s squad is short on genuine star power. But what they lack in stardust, they make up for in experience and application. Veteran defender Yuto Nagatomo is back for a record-breaking fifth World Cup, making him the only player in Asia to reach that landmark, and the team hasn’t lost a game since last September.
24. Korea Republic
At 33, superstar Son Heung-min is probably in the last chance saloon as far as the World Cup goes, and while he’s no longer quite the force he was at Spurs, he’s still far and away his country’s best player. With that said, several players in this squad play their club football with European powerhouses, most notably Lee Kang-in, who made 39 appearances for European champions Paris Saint-Germain, and Kim Min-jae, who remains at Bayern Munich despite a tumultuous last couple of seasons.
C Tier: Delighted to Be Here
This tier contains teams who are happy to have qualified one way or another. Now that they’re here, they’re dreaming of perhaps causing an upset or two — and if the dice fall favorably, perhaps they’ll even leapfrog a more established team to give themselves a chance at the knockout stage. If not, well, it was fun while it lasted.
25. Türkiye
They have more than enough talent to rank higher than this, but ultimately, a team is judged by its results, and given the almighty struggle it took to qualify, Türkiye are indeed just delighted to be here. It’s kinda wild to think that this football-mad country is participating in the World Cup for only the third time. The last time they qualified, in 2002, they ended up taking third place. This time around, they should at least make the round of 32 — and beyond that, who knows?
26. Switzerland
We might end up looking silly for putting Switzerland in this tier, as the team has a solid spine of proven winners in Manuel Akanji, Granit Xhaka and Breel Embolo (although they will miss keeper Jann Sommer, who retired from national team duties two years ago). Their group looks very navigable, too, as Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Canada are all teams that Switzerland is absolutely capable of beating if everything clicks for them.
27. Paraguay
They’re not quite on the same level as some of their neighbors, but no-one should underestimate a team that manages to qualify from the hard-fought South American qualifiers. Their headline talent is Julio Enciso, who spent several years in the Premier League with Brighton before moving to his current club, Ligue 1 stalwarts Strasbourg. There’s also Miggy Almirón, the man with the widest smile in world football and still a creative talent to reckon with at 32.
28. Canada
They’re the lowest-ranked of the three host nations, largely because a) they’re in the toughest group and b) their best player, Alphonso Davies, is injured. Again. Davies tweaked a hamstring in Bayern Munich’s Champions League draw with Paris Saint-Germain on May 6, and has not played since. Despite this, coach Jesse Marsch has named him in the Canadian squad, but the history of the World Cup is littered with teams who’ve crashed and burned after betting on the fitness of stars injured coming into the tournament. Davies has already said he’ll miss Canada’s first game, and he may end up only playing two more.
29. Congo DR
The last time the Democratic Republic of the Congo made the World Cup was 52 years ago, when they were known as Zaire. It’s hard to see them going much further than the group stage, and their preparation has unfortunately been less than ideal, with a pre-tournament friendly against Spain was cancelled because of fears around the Ebola outbreak. Nevertheless, they’re not backing down from anyone — as defender Gedeon Kalulu said recently, “It doesn’t matter who we’re up against. We’re [at the World Cup] because we’ve got what it takes.”
30. Scotland
There wasn’t a dry eye in the house when Scotland sealed qualification for the first time in 28 years, and an image of Scott McTominay’s absurd overhead kick in the decisive victory over Denmark will apparently adorn the country’s new £20 note. That fact shows just how much this means to Scotland, and now they’re here, emerging from the group might finally dislodge Archie Gemill’s 1978 goal against the Netherlands from Mark Renton’s mental highlight reel.
31. Czechia
There’s no one in this squad to rival some of the Czech stars of the past: no Pavel Nedvěd, no Petr Čech, no Karel Poborský or Tomáš Rosický. That said, Patrik Schick has proven over multiple tournaments that he can score goals on this stage. tThe question now is whether the team behind him can provide him with the service to do so. Either way, getting out of a group featuring Mexico and South Korea, along with South Africa, may prove a struggle.
32. Ecuador
Ecuador got here by battling through the cutthroat South American qualification tournament, and they didn’t do that by being easy to beat. In Chelsea star Moises Caicedo they have one of the world’s most dynamic (and destructive) defensive midfielders, and their defense is compact and efficient. They don’t score a lot of goals… but then, they only have to score one more than the other team, right?
33. Algeria
The words “Algerian football” and “Riyad Mahrez” have been largely synonymous for the last decade, and while at 35, Algeria’s captain is on the downswing of his career, he’ll be relishing the opportunity to finally display his talents at a World Cup. And he’s joined at last by a legitimately good team, as evidenced by the fact that Algeria qualified for this tournament after missing out in 2018 and 2022.
34. Austria
They might be the least promising of the European teams at this tournament, but at the end of the day, Austria are here while multiple bigger names — Italy, Denmark, Poland and Russia — are not. That has to count for something, right? And Austria has a spine of fine players, including David Alaba in defense, Marcel Sabitzer in midfield and Marko Arnautović in attack. The question is whether the rest of the squad has the quality to lift them above Jordan or Algeria in a group likely to be dominated by defending champions Argentina.
35. Iran
“Delighted to be here” might not be the best description of Iran’s feelings on this World Cup, but they’ll certainly be pleased to have retained their hard-won spot at the tournament. And look, they’re a really decent team. They’re currently 21st in FIFA’s world rankings, and while we don’t think they’re genuinely the 21st best team in the world, they’re more than capable of emerging from their group, at the very least. And as already mentioned, if they do so, there’s a very real possibility that they might end up playing the USA, which will certainly be interesting, considering current geopolitical conflicts.
36. Saudi Arabia
In theory, the Saudi league’s largesse over the last few years in splashing cash to bring in big names like Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar should have done the Saudi national team a favor. After all, 25 of the 26 players here play in the country’s domestic competition, and a higher standard can only be good news. Whether this theory will be borne out by actual performances remains to be seen, as the Saudis struggled to qualify for this tournament, and their group features Spain and Uruguay, who are likely to finish first and second, respectively, leaving the Saudis to fight it out with Cabo Verde for third place. You’d think this should be relatively straightforward, but Cabo Verde are no mugs, and they’ll be hyped for their debut tournament.
D tier: First Plane Home
This year’s World Cup is the first with 48 countries taking part. That’s a lot of teams, and unfortunately, a whole bunch of them have to go home after the group stage. The knockout rounds start with a round of 32 teams, which means that 16 will be eliminated right away: the bottom team from each of the 12 groups, plus the four lowest performing third place finishers. This tier contains the teams that we expect to finish at the foot of their respective groups. Sorry, guys.
37. South Africa
The expansion to 48 teams means that none of this tournament’s four-team groupings are quite as cutthroat as the Groups of Death of years past. But in our opinion, if anyone got a raw deal with their draw, it’s probably South Africa. None of those teams in their group — Mexico, South Korea and Czechia — are significantly better than the Bafana Bafana, but someone has to finish last, and on balance, it’s probably going to be Hugo Broos’s men.
38. Australia
As an Australian, this kills me — but are the Socceroos really going to get out of a group that includes one of the host nations (USA! USA!) along with a seasoned South American nation (Paraguay) and a team that, at least on paper, should be better than both of those two (Türkiye)? No. I don’t think they are. But look, if they do, I’ll be delighted to be wrong.
39. New Zealand
At least we’ll do better than the New Zealanders, though, right? Right?? As the lowest ranked team to make the tournament — as per FIFA’s rankings, they’re the 85th best in the world — it’s hard to see the Kiwis emerging from their group. This is especially true given the teams with whom they’ve been paired: Belgium, which is far and away the best team in the group, along with Egypt and Iran. Also, they just got thrashed by Haiti, so maybe this ranking is overly optimistic.
40. Haiti
FIFA’s rankings place Haiti 82nd in the world, just above both New Zealand (85th) and Curaçao (84th). This feels about right, and when we started writing this list, they were right near the bottom. But they’re in sparkling form coming into the tournament, having just put four goals past group C rivals Scotland in a friendly, and four more past New Zealand. They might rank higher if it wasn’t for Group C’s difficulty — in addition to Scotland, the group contains Morocco and Brazil.
41. Tunisia
As we mentioned above, this tier is for the teams we think will be propping up their respective groups, and while Tunisia certainly aren’t a bad side, it’d be a major surprise to see them finishing anywhere but fourth in a group containing the Netherlands, Japan and Sweden. They’re solid defensively, conceding precisely zero goals in their qualifying campaign, but they struggle to score, and they’ll need to do so to have any chance of avoiding an early trip home.
42. Iraq
Iraq booked their ticket to this competition the hard way, first with victory in a nailbiting two-leg playoff over the United Arab Emirates, and then a 2-1 victory over Bolivia in the Intercontinental Playoffs, which decided who’d fill the last slot at this competition. Their reward? The booby prize that is the fourth slot in the aforementioned nightmare that is Group I. Life really feels deeply unfair sometimes.
43. Panama
It’s unlikely that any Panama’s players will be familiar to casual fans, but they’re a fine example of a team being more than the sum of its parts. They defend well, press effectively when the chance presents itself, and creative talents like Ismael Diaz and Jose Luis Rodriguez give the team impetus going forward. Is any of that going to be enough to get them out of a group featuring Croatia, England and Ghana? Nope.
44. Qatar
There’s been no automatic qualification this time for Qatar. The 2022 hosts had to book their place at this World Cup the hard way, and they did it with aplomb, finishing atop their group in the AFC qualifiers, and then beating the UAE and Oman in a playoff round. They failed to make it out of the group stage last time, and with Canada, Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina for competition this round, a similar result is likely.
45. Jordan
Jordan, meanwhile, are making their World Cup debut, having battled through the same AFC qualifying gauntlet as Qatar. They’re likely to follow the same trajectory as the team from the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, with a group containing Argentina, Algeria and Austria looking like too difficult a challenge to navigate.
46. Uzbekistan
The only name likely to be familiar to non-Uzbeks in this squad is Abdukodir Khusanov, although one hopes he’ll prove more reliable for his country than he has for Manchester City. Either way, finishing above any of Portugal, Colombia or Congo DR looks beyond Uzbekistan, for whom qualifying was a laudable achievement in and of itself.
47. Cabo Verde
Similarly, qualifying for the World Cup is an even more startling achievement for Cabo Verde, a country with a population of less than half a million people. They did it the hard way, too, emerging from the African qualifiers ahead of Cameroon, a country with a World Cup quarter-final appearance in its pedigree. Cabo Verde will fear no one, and they’ll surely relish the chance to show their stuff against Spain in their opening fixture.
48. Curaçao
Someone has to come last, and unfortunately, Curaçao’s preparations for what would already have been an uphill struggle have been less than ideal. Veteran Dutch coach Dick Advocaat, who led the team to qualification, stepped down in February for family reasons. His replacement, Dick Rutten, apparently proved more a triumph of nominative determinism than his predecessor, and Advocaat returned recently to answer Curacao’s SOS. None of this feels like less than ideal preparation for a World Cup debut, although Advocaat’s return should at least restore some stability.
Tom Hawking is a Brooklyn-based writer, editor and football fanatic. Find him at his website.
photo: iStock
